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Michael Shermer's E-Skeptic of 11 Jun, 99

Archaeology Mystery, Possible Skeptics Lectures In October, Roper Poll Finds Americans Think People Will Freak Out If Aliens Are Discovered, Two Christian's Opinions Of Skeptics And My Rejoinder.

© 1999 by Skeptics Society, Altadena, CA

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Archaeology Mystery

This Sunday, June 13, 2:00 pm, at Baxter Lecture Hall, Caltech, Dr. Elizabeth Wayland Barber will be lecturing on:

THE MUMMIES OF URUMCHI
The Mystery of Causians Living in Asia 4,000 Years Ago

In the wind-swept region of Western China a mysterious collection of 4,000-year-old mummies were discovered and found to be not Asian but Caucasoid--tall and large-nosed and blond with thick beards and round eyes (probably blue). What were these blond Caucasians doing in the heart of Asia? Where did they come from and what languages did they speak? Might they be related to a "lost tribe" of Indo-Europeans known from later inscriptions? As a consultanting scientist on the project, Dr. Barber gives her insights into this ancient, exotic, and nearly forgotten world.

Elizabeth Wayland Barber is the author of "Prehistoric Textiles, Archaeological Decipherment," and the highly acclaimed "Women's Work: The First 20,000 Years." Her latest book, "The Mummies of Urumchi," will be available for purchase and signing. She teaches at Occidental College.

Donation at the door: $5.00 for members, $8.00 for nonmembers. Directions: Off the 210 freeway take Lake Blvd. South, left on Del Mar, right on Michigan. Park in faculty parking lot or adjacent public parking lots. Off the 110 freeway follow to the end where it becomes Arroyo, right on Del Marober

Possible Skeptics Lectures In October

W. H. Freeman is sending me on a national book tour for HOW WE BELIEVE: THE SEARCH FOR GOD IN AN AGE OF SCIENCE. I will end up on a Friday in Chicago on October 15, and a Friday in Dallas on October 22, and can do a lecture or debate on the God question for any skeptics/humanist groups or university departments. The rest of the dates are tight because these are mostly media all day and evening, but if there is a break I'll be in these cities on these dates:

October 11: New York (Monday)
October 12: New York
October 13: Boston
October 14: Cleveland
October 15: Chicago
October 16-17: home or lecture with the local skeptics group.
October 18: San Francisco (Monday)
October 19: Portland
October 20: Denver
October 21: Minneapolis
October 22: Dallas
October 23-24: free weekend in Dallas
October 25: travel day? (Monday)
October 26: Mississippi State University. Lecture
October 27: Possible Southern Alabama University lecture.

Roper Poll Finds Americans Think People Will Freak Out If Aliens Are Discovered

PRESS RELEASE - National Institute for Discovery Science
June 7, 1999

HOW WOULD HUMANS REACT IF E.T. LANDED?

NASA and the scientific community are actively searching for evidence of extraterrestrial life, but what if we were confronted with undeniable proof that ETs exist and have been visiting Earth?

A nationwide survey by the Roper Organization has uncovered the following:

--one out of four Americans think most people would "totally freak out and panic" if such evidence were confirmed.

--eighty percent of influential Americans think the US government would classify or suppress evidence of extraterrestrial life.

The Roper survey was conducted on behalf of the National Institute for Discovery Science (NIDS), a privately funded scientific research organization based in Las Vegas, NV. The pollsters asked a nationwide sample of 1,971 men and women a variety of questions concerning a sudden confirmation of extraterrestrial life. (The poll has error margins of 2.5 percent.)

Among other findings:
When asked what they thought UFOs were, 25% thought they were alien spaceships, 12% thought they were secret government programs, 9% said hallucinations, 19% said UFOs are normal events that are misinterpreted by witnesses, and 7% said travelers from other dimensions.

When asked whom they would choose to make first contact with ETs on Earth, 20% said the military, 29% said scientists, 14% said the government, 11% said religious leaders and 20% said a private organization that had planned for such a contingency.

"There have been no systematic studies about the potential impact of confirmed contact", says Dr. Colm Kelleher, deputy administrator of NIDS. A 1960 report by the Brookings Institute and an internal RAND document from 1968 predicted profound social consequences if contact were confirmed, but there have been no follow-up studies.

For more information about the Roper survey and about NIDS, keep reading, or visit the NIDS website at: http://www.accessnv.com/nids

When asked how they would react psychologically to confirmation of advanced extraterrestrial life, 32% said they were "fully prepared to handle it", 17% said they would "rethink their place in the universe". Yet when asked how they think OTHERS would react to the same news, 25% said that "most people would totally freak out and panic", 10% said most others would "act irrationally and become dangerous to others", 14% said that others would "begin to act very strangely", 36% said "most people would be very concerned", and only 13% said "most people would handle the information in a calm and rational way".

Since 1995, NIDS has been conducting scientific research into unconventional and novel areas including aerial phenomena research. NIDS's president and founder is Robert Bigelow. The Las Vegas based organization employs a staff of Ph.D. level, multi-disciplinary scientists and is advised by a world class science advisory board.

Kelleher pointed to ongoing serious scientific studies on the remote possibility of an asteroid striking the planet. "On the other hand we have no government programs, no contingency plans that are in the public domain for coping with the possibility of E.T. contact. Yet these numbers from Roper say that 80% of the trend-setters in America do not trust the government to inform the public and one in four of the general public think there would be total panic if confirmation of advanced extraterrestrials occurred", said Kelleher.

The full text of the poll can be accessed on the NIDS website at: http://www.accessnv.com/nids. Or contact Dr. Colm Kelleher at NIDS at 702-798-1700 or nids@anv.net.

Two Christian's Opinion Of Skeptics

I thought you all might enjoy these letters, mostly for what they reveal about how and why people believe. I especially like the juxtaposition of the second sentence and the last in this first letter.

LETTER 1

What is your magazine trying to proof?? Your skeptical minds are very stupid, "what we don't know is not true"

I hope that all your members find a way to see the real truth. I know that your life is bitter, because you have no love in your hearts, but maybe one day, Jesus will touch your hearts and you will be filled with pure love. Than your minds look stupid in front of the King of Kings and you are weeping, because you where so sinnfull.

Repent, because Jesus will come back and restore His Kingdom on earth.

God bless your magazine and your members,
Ren Moonen, Eindhoven, The Netherlands, rene.moonen@philips.com

LETTER 2

Hello, I stumbled upon your site accidentally. Oh, what I wouldn't give to sit down and have a conversation with someone from your group. There will come a day when every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess that Jesus Christ is Lord. You, and all living creatures on Earth and below, will not be able to help it. You will fall to your knees, arms raised toward the heavens, all that you are will worship Christ Jesus The King!!! The day is coming soon. Don't be left behind. When the day comes and in a twinkling of an eye, all those who love Christ are removed off the face of the Earth, then you will know. Many will try to rationalize it, or explain it away, but you will know. You have been told. You are accountable now. A man, who is a man of peace, will soon come to power, he will reign for 7 years. 31/2 years into his reign he will reveal himself for the liar he is. His true motives will come to light, he is a man of war, hate, destruction and evil. If you do not recieve Christ before this happens, and when you see the biblical prophecy fulfilled, remember this letter. Recieve Him and you will be saved. I pray that God will reveal Himself to you, and that you will take a leap of faith, content with the fact that we CANNOT know it all. Who can know the mind of the Lord? He is above all. It would be like trying to explain the theory of relativity to a 2 year old. Uncomprehensible. You are a chosen child of God, he does not want to see you perish. You will see Him in your life, just Stop and look for HIM. Please, please, respond with any questions you have. I will do all I can to help.
Thank You,
Wendy, telldad@earthlink.net

MY RESPONSE TO WENDY:

I am sympathetic to your feelings and beliefs, as I was once a born-again Christian. I have since moved on intellectually and developed my own set of beliefs, but if what you say happens I must confess that I will be surprised and it will certainly get my attention if suddenly people start disappearing by the hundreds of millions. I presume this will be hard to miss. (BTW, will Catholics be saved? If so, there are over one billion worldwide, and that certainly would be a lot of missing folks.)

You asked if I have a question. I do; several actually: What if none of this happens? What if people don't disappear? What if Jesus does not come? What if the anti-Christ does not do what is describe in the book of Revelation? Indeed, what if there is no anti-Christ or, for that matter, no Christ? Will you be willing to change your beliefs and agree this was a mistake? At what point will you admit that this was all a chimera? In other words, what I am asking Wendy is this: Is there a way for us to test your claim? Is there some set of criteria we can establish, and a time table by which we can agree that your claim is either true or false? Would you be willing, for example, to recant your beliefs if none of this happens by, say, January 1, 2001? How about January 1, 2005 (just to give you some wiggle room for the anti-Christ to fulfill prophecy)? You proclaim with great confidence and certainty that your claim is true. I suspect it is not. How can we test it?

I look forward to your response.
Michael Shermer
Publisher, Skeptic magazine

WENDY'S RESPONSE TO ME:

Hello,
Thank you for responding. I was so excited to see you took the time to respond, and better yet that you had questions for me! I would like to address each one of your questions individually.

Will the Catholics be saved?
I cannot classify a whole group of people and judge their hearts. What I can say, however is that if a person has invited Christ to live in their hearts, believing and proclaiming that he is the Son of God, they will be saved. Whether they are catholic, Christian or nondenominational. This applies to you as well. Once you have truly believed and received you are saved. It is impossible to lose your salvation. We all, including myself have a type of yo-yo relationship with the Lord. I suspect you are at the full extent of your string, only to begin your return trip toward God.

What if none of this happens?
To best illustrate my response to this question please see the table below:

[THIS CHART WAS ALL MESSED UP IN THE FLOW, BUT IT IS PASCAL'S WAGER OF WHICH YOU ARE ALL FAMILIAR]

What do you have to lose? Everything. What do I have to lose? Nothing Your beliefs do not offer any hope, so if I don't believe as you do, I don't lose anything.
The bible offers hope for eternity, so if you don't believe in the bible and Christ, you lose it all.

What if people don't disappear?
When? What time period do you set as your limitations? I do not put any time constraints on God. They(Christ's people) will be raptured. It may not be on my time schedule, in my time, but it WILL happen. If it does not, as your question asks, well I won't know any different because I will be dead. If it is all a hoax, well then what have I lost? We all have to die anyway.

What if Jesus does not come?
He will, Michael. Trust in your heart and know, he will.

What if the anti-christ does not do what is described in the book of Revelations? What if there is no anti-christ, for that matter, no Christ? Thus far bible prophecy has been 100% accurate. To expound upon this point I would love to send you a wonderful video tape that talks about how bible prophecy has been fulfilled. Just to name a few verses and how they relate to our times today:

1) Daniel 12:4 "But you Daniel shut up the words and seal the book until the end, when many will run to & fro and there shall be a burst of knowledge" Airplanes make it possible to go around the world on a whim. Been to an airport recently? Many, many people are going to and fro. Knowledge is bursting at the seams with the internet. Honestly sit down and write a list of all the 'knowledge bursts' that have occurred in your lifetime. For example-VCRs, computers, microwave, the internet, satellites, the list goes on.

2) Luke 21:11 "There will be great earthquakes, famines, and disease in various places, and fearful events and great signs from heaven." The United States Geological Survey gives us this information- A "great earthquake" is defined as being 8.0 or higher on the Richter scale. 1966-1975 3 great earthquakes occurred. 1976-1985 6 great earthquakes occurred. 1986-1995 8 great earthquakes occurred.

3) Revelation 11:18 "The nations were angry and Your wrath has come...And should destroy those who destroy the earth" God knew that man, left unchecked in his selfishness would destroy the earth. Look at all the problems we face, depletion of ozone, toxic wastes, global warming, greenhouse affect, smog alerts, oil spills, radiation, acid rain and on and on. We have done it all to ourselves. Not one of the above mentioned acts has been caused by nature or God, but by us, people, selfish, glutinous "destroyers of the earth".
There is more available upon request :)

Will you be willing to change your beliefs and agree this was a mistake? At what point will you admit that this was all a chimera?
No, I will never agree it was a mistake. Not in my lifetime. Not if you put a gun to my head.

Is there a way for us to test your claim?
I smile as I answer this question, it's obvious you have a scientific mind, as do I. All scientists want proof. I myself majored in the sciences and I am now an emergency room RN. Proof? no. That is why it's called faith. I'm sure you've heard that one before:) Clear your mind of all thoughts and preconceived ideas and think about this... If God rapped on our windows each morning to awake us, chatted with us as we brushed our teeth, solved all our problems, openly performed miracles, knocked over glasses of water when we asked for some proof, then we would all believe. We would have no choice but to believe. As real as the knowledge that grass is green and we exist, so too would be the knowledge that God was real. God desires us to choose Him. He does not demand it , he offers it as a choice. If there was absolute proof, then there would be no need for faith.

Is there some set of criteria we can establish, and a time table by which we can agree that your claim is either true or false?
Criteria, yes. Show me a biblical prophecy that has been absolutely proven false on Gods' time line. In other words show me a scripture in the bible that says "this will happen at this time", prove to me that that time has passed and it has not occurred.

Would you be willing, for example, to recant your beliefs if none of this happens by, say, January 1, 2001? How about January 1, 2005 (just to give you some wiggle room for the anti-Christ to fulfill prophecy)? No, I will never recant my beliefs, my God or my Christ. I am proud and confident in Him who strengthens me.

In closing I must say that I have thoroughly enjoyed sharing with you. I thank you for your respect and sincerity. I gladly welcome any further dialog with you. Now may I ask you a few questions? You say you were once a born-again Christian. How did that happen? What did that entail? How did you lose your faith? My final question for you Michael is, Can you, without a shadow of a doubt, disprove God? How can we test your beliefs? Let me reiterate, What do you have to lose? Everything. What do I have to lose? Nothing.
You do not know how God will choose to speak to you. Do you actually think I stumbled upon you by accident? No. The Lord is at work here.

I look forward to hearing from you soon.
Sincerely,
Wendy Petta


With her comment that "No, I will never agree it was a mistake. Not in my lifetime. Not if you put a gun to my head," I figured it was pointless to continue the dialogue. But as a form of data about how and why people believe, it is a classic statement. Don't you agree?

Thanks for your interest!