February 12, 1809, both Charles Darwin and Abraham Lincoln were born. Yup, that's right. They were born on the same DAY (not just date). Since the country is already celebrating the President's birthday this weekend, let us not forget Charles Darwin who is, arguably, equally important in world history. (I would argue far more important in the long run, but I realize that's debatable given the current political and racial situation in America. But once we get past all that in centuries to come, Darwin will still be influential.).

You might want to check out NBC next Wednesday, Feb. 17 at 8/7pm. Here's the press materials:

"CONFIRMATION": HARD EVIDENCE OF ALIENS AMONG US?

An NBC two-hour special based on Whitley Strieber's (also the author of "Communion") best-selling book, "Confirmation," published by St. Martins Press, the controversial and disturbing production explores evidence that Earth has been visited by UFOs and alien beings. That evidence is subjected to tough scientific analysis in the special. One of the highlights of the unique presentation will be the first on-camera removal of an alleged alien implant and viewers will also see -- for the first time -- controversial visually recorded information that attests to the possibilities that we have been visited by alien spacecraft and aliens. The special will be hosted by Robert Davi (FBI Agent Bailey on NBC's "The Profiler"). Are those of us on Earth the only lifeforms in this entire universe or are there other beings in existence residing in other solar systems who are monitoring us and have gone so far as to abduct earthlings for examination? The special presents home videos of space craft, testimonials from people who say they've been abducted by aliens, and eyewitness accounts from policemen who've witnessed alien craft. All of this is balanced with the voices of scientists, therapists and even special effects experts who give viewers the other side of the picture. "Confirmation: The Hard Evidence of Aliens Among Us?" was directed and written by Starling Price. Mark Wolper (NBC's "A Will of Their Own" and "Badge of Honor") is the executive producer and Whitley Strieber and Starling Price are the co- executive producers of the NBC Studios Production."

The book "Confirmation" received mixed reviews at
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0312967047/bufosweirdworld/002-9374192-4903633

Allow me to comment on this press release. The media and general public typically confuse the question of the possibility of life elsewhere in the cosmos with the question of intelligent life actually visiting Earth. These are two entirely different questions with two entirely different research programs and forms of evidence. The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) is a legitimate field of scientific inquiry that involves cosmology, astronomy, astrophysics, chemistry, biochemistry, stellar evolution, planetary geology, exobiology, etc., and is conducted by scientists working in those fields. At present there is no evidence whatsoever of ET life anywhere. (The Mars' rock looks like a bust.) However, indirect evidence in the form of extra-solar system planets, and especially the apparent abundance of chemicals conducive to the development of life being found virtually everywhere we look, not to mention the enormity of space and the (literally) astronomical numbers of stars that, from a purely probabilistic argument, make the possibility of ET life somewhere in the cosmos so close to 1 that it is, as the author of the new book PROBABILITY ONE argues, 1. This possibility or probability, however, is very different from the question of whether they have come here or not.

The fields of UFOs and alien abductions, for the most part, are populated by non-scientists, amateur scientists, pseudoscientists, conspiracy theorists, and their evidence mostly consists of blurry videos, grainy photographs, and lots and lots of anecdotes. Don't hold your breath on the alien implant. We've been waiting for years for the "first ever" extraction on camera of an alleged implant, to no avail. And even if they do extract something, it must be examined to insure it really is of extraterrestrial origin, since humans not infrequently have weird things in their bodies.

Enrico Fermi decades ago, and Frank Tipler more recently, make the argument that if the probability is 1 for ETs, and given the likelihood that at least some of them would be ahead of us on a geological/evolutionary time scale, it would mean they would be (figuratively) light years ahead of us technologically (look how far we've come this century alone--from the Wright Bros. in 1903 to the moon in 1969; imagine what we will have accomplished in, say, the next 100,000 years of technological evolution, and that is but a heart beat on the geological time scale).

So, Fermi and Tipler argue, unless we are the very first civilization to achieve space travel, then someone should have been here by now, either directly or through self-replicating "Von Neumann" machines (spacecraft programmed to find planets or asteroids, land on them, mine them, and recreate hundreds of themselves--like viruses--launch themselves back into space and repeat the process). Since they are not here (and Tipler does not accept UFO and alien abduction stories and photographs), and it is extremely unlikely we would be first, then we must be alone.

The counter to this argument is that the cosmos is a really, really big place with mostly empty space and the chances of finding us are so remote that even with the numbers they crunch about self-replicating exploratory spacecraft, that it is entirely possible they simply missed us. Consider this: last week I got JPL's news release to read on my "Science Talk" radio show, updating the Voyager spacecraft, both of which are still operating. Here is a startling statistic for you: Even traveling at 35,000 miles per hour, every hour for every day for every year for 23 years, Voyager is a mere 1/4,000th of the way to the nearest star, which it isn't heading for anyway. Even if it were heading for the nearest star, it would be another 92,000 years before it got there. To me that is simply staggering. It really is one hellova big universe.

For our readers in the U.K., here is a new skeptics group you might want to check out:

A new regular monthly evening for skeptics in London, U.K., has been created by Dr. Scott Campbell, a philosopher at the University of London, in conjunction with the Association for Skeptical Enquiry (ASKE) and The Skeptic magazine. Each evening will feature a talk from a prominent skeptic, followed by questions and an informal discussion.

The first evening in February will feature Wendy Grossman, journalist, author and editor of the British Skeptic magazine . The next evening will feature Wayne Spencer, whose talk is entitled 'Don't Believe Everything You Feel: The Need For Critical Thinking and Proper Testing in Alternative Medicine', on Thursday March 11. Wayne is one of the founding members of the Assocation for Skeptical Enquiry.

The speaker for April (Thursday 15th) will be Mike Hutchinson, one of Britain's most experienced skeptics. His talk is entitled 'Bizarre Beliefs', and he will be drawing upon the book of the same name which he co-wrote with Guardian columnist Simon Hoggart. And on Thursday 20th May we will welcome Dr. Richard Wiseman, one of the world's leading parapsychologists and skeptics, who will be talking on 'Investigating the Paranormal: A Skeptical Perspective'.

The evenings are held upstairs in the Florence Nightingale pub, conveniently situated near Waterloo station, starting at 7.30. The address is 199 Westminster Bridge Road, on the junction with York Road (on the roundabout).

Further information is available from Dr. Scott Campbell on (44 + 171) 862 8686, or by e-mailing Scott.Campbell@sas.ac.uk.

Dr. William Jarvis, arguably one of the world's leading experts on alternative medicine (from a scientific perspective), wrote the following in response to my posts the past two weeks about the "cure" and subsequent demise of the actress Susan Strasberg:

The idea that cancer patients who delude themselves by attending miracle healers (whether of the psychic variety or otherwise) have a better quality of life than those who submit to standard therapies with their side-effects is not doubted by many (most?) in the medical community. However, the only test of the idea that I am aware of, found this not to be the case.

Cassileth et al obtained the cooperation of Virginia Livingston-Wheeler, MD, who operated a fringe cancer clinic in San Diego circa 1990. Seventy-eight pairs of patients were matched according to sex, race, age, diagnosis, and time from the diagnosis of metastatic or recurrent disease, who were enrolled over a period of 3.5 years. All patients were followed until death. Livingston-Wheeler patients were given her dubious "vaccine," BCG injections, vegetarian diet, and coffee enemas. They All but six of the control patients were on chemotherapy. The patients' quality of life was assessed useing the Functional Living Index-Cancer. Researchers expected to find a higher quality of life among the optimistic, deluded VLW patients, but it didn't turn out that way. The VLW patients scored consistently lower than those treated by standard methods. (New Engl J Med, 1991;324:1180-5).

This surprising finding was consistent with two other studies that demonstrated how faulty subjective experience can be when attempting to evaluate a cancer treatment program. The Bristol Cancer Self-help Center (BCHC) in the UK offered patients a stringent diet (partially raw and partially cooked veges, with soya proteins, and pulses), active participation in the healing process, positive thinking, etc. The program directors and staff were so certain that their patients were doing much better than patients treated in the standard way that they asked a team of doctors and researchers to test their program. This was done, and much to the shock and chagrin of the BCHC people, the finding were that metastasis-free survival was significantly poored among the BCHC patients, and survival of relapsed patients was significantly inferior as well. (The Lancet, 1990;336:606-10.)

Bernie Siegel, MD, has made himself into a New Age guru by touting the superiority of his ECaPs (Exceptional Cancer Patients). He has written several books, and appeared on the media touting the idea that optimism, love, and social support are life-enhancing. Nevertheless, a ten-year follow-up of the ECaPs program found no benefit. (J Clin Oncology 1993;11:66-9)

It is interesting that even health professionals with standard training can be fooled by the subjective clinical experience. This was documented by Roberts, et al, who looked at five different clinical procedures that had come into use based upon clinical reports, but which were later found to be ineffective when subjected to randomize, blinded clinical trials (Clinical Psychology Reviews, 1993;13:375-91). This review documented the deceptive clinical illusions that physicians can experience who rely upon clinical experience without blinded, objective testing.

Alternativist physicians have the same vulnerability, plus the added problems imposed by their nonconformist personalities. They seem to know about the possibilities placebo effects, and other dynamics that can create clinical illusions on an intellectual level, but seem incapable of sorting these factors out experientially.

Or, like Herbert Benson, they don't think it is important to sort these things out because they believe that belief per se is the most powerful healing factor. (I have accused Benson of having bumped his head on the cornerstone of the Mother Church of Christian Science there in Boston where he works). The "mind over matter" beliefs of the proponents of positive thinking are very often at the root of alternativism.

I believe these people, both patients and practitioners, are wishful thinkers who, as the old song says, "accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative, latch on to the affirmative, and don't mess with Mr. In-Between." They hate science because it attacks their delusions.