In my review of Robert Wright's book, at the very end in discussing the Neanderthals, I stated that modern humans drove them into extinction in a very nonzero fashion. That should have been zero-sum fashion, or non-nonzero fashion, since we zeroed them out! I can't believe neither I nor the good folks at the Los Angeles Times all missed that.
The legendary king of Urban Legends, Dr. Jan Harold Brunvand, will be speaking for the Skeptics Society this Sunday at 2:00pm at Caltech's Baxter lecture hall, on the subject of his latest book, TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE (published by W. W. Norton). In my opinion this is the best of his many volumes on urban legends and folk myths, as he not only recounts the many tales that have turned into these socio-cultural beasts that happened to a friend of a friend (FOAF in the jargon of the trade of the academic folks and sociologists who traffic in the study of these things).
This from Jamie McCarthy on game theory is very insightful:
Proportionally, I doubt Nature plays many "games," zero-sum or otherwise. When a cat chases a mouse, or when a macrophage devours a bacterium, there's no gaming involved. The mouse can't offer to cooperate with the cat, because the only thing it has of value to the cat is its body. All it can do is run.
The interesting minority of ineractions involve the prospect of cooperation or competition between relative equals. Ants and aphids evolve genetically to play the Prisoner's Dilemma well. Humans evolve memetically. I suspect this minority of interactions is vanishingly small, if there is any reasonable way to measure it at all.
But if the thesis is that the Iterative Prisoner's Dilemma (IPD) will lead to one-worldism, peace, and harmony for all, he simply misunderstands game theory at a fundamental level. Even in a stable environment, an IPD with evolving participants churns until it produces a mix of strategies at one of the stable points of Nash equilibrium. There is no guarantee that these strategies are more cooperative than not, or more "nice" than not.
Depending on the starting parameters and the amount of noise in the system, Nash equilibrium may only be reached at a point where everyone is defecting 99% of the time. Introduce a one-percent uncertainty into the decisions, and then make defection 1000 times more rewarding than cooperation; we'll see how well TIT FOR TAT does then.
More importantly, in the real world, in the long term, there are no stable environments. The millions of IPDs that we are all playing with each other have rules that change so quickly that any stability is fleeting. Shoot an Archduke or two and the whole house of cards will crumble, to be rebuilt with different parameters. Those vampire bats are cooperating nicely now, but come the next Ice Age or asteroid, all bets are off. Any argument that claims game theory's support for "the long term" is doomed.
Jamie McCarthy
jamie@mccarthy.org
http://jamie.mccarthy.org/
One of the greatest skeptical docs out there is Dr. Dean Edell, writing regular prescriptions for rationality in medicine on his nationally syndicated radio show and now on the net through his own hotline/healthline. I encourage you all to check it out. Dr. Dean is a huge fan of skeptics and a champion of science. Here's the info and his latest posting:
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Read Dr. Oscar London's latest column, "Wince, Ballerina, Wince" and and find out about a prima ballerina who gained a few pounds and happiness to boot:
http://www.healthcentral.com/columnists/OscarLondon/OscarLondonFullText.cfm?ID =27158&storytype=Column_London
* Want antioxidants? Go for the real food, not pills * Andro: baseball allows it, while the feds consider controls * Injury during childbirth - to the doctor! * It's true about 'tall,' dark and handsome * OB's more camera shy than family physicians * The ups and downs of height health risks * How do general and spinal anesthesia compare? * Are antibacterial gels dangerous? * Can my doctor repair my broken clavicles? * Did you hear that an eardrum tickle can cause a cough? * I am farsighted. Will laser surgery help me? * My gout is getting worse. Should I quit drinking? * Why does my husband get depressed at noon? * Doggie treats not man's best friend
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27327
If you want antioxidants, you're better off eating some berries or an orange, according to this study. Researchers found inconsistent levels of antioxidants in supplement pills, with many not even providing the suggested daily intake.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27330
Major League Baseball's decision to allow players to use androstenedione might lead to more regulation of the supplement. Recent studies show that it can cause adverse health effects, so the government is considering controlling its sale.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27329
We've all heard horror stories about what can happen during childbirth - but here's a case where it wasn't the baby or the mother who suffered an injury.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27332
A pair of studies seem to indicate that women prefer tall men over short ones. Of course, it's interesting, but not really important when you get right down to it.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27328
Family physicians are more likely to allow the videotaping of a birth than obstetricians, according to a recent study. Interesting, but I wouldn't base my choice of doctor on their comfort level with video cameras.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27331
If you're tall, there is good news and bad news. The good - your risk of heart disease is lower. The bad? Your risk of cancer is higher.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27309
With local, you'd hear all the sounds of your surgery, and you'd be yourself right after surgery. With general, they'd be set up to handle an emergency more easily, but you'd be groggy afterward. It's a matter of what you would prefer.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27310
Antibacterial gels are safe for individuals; my worry is that overuse by a lot of people will lead to the creation of resistant organisms. In this case - bathing a child who is wearing casts - using them makes sense.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27312
Traditionally, we don't pin or operate on broken clavicles. But the healing power of bones is amazing. Months from now an x-ray will show them knitted nicely together.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27311
Here is a cause of chronic cough that is legendary in medical school: something tickling the eardrum, and setting off a reflex that causes a chronic cough.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27315
You should talk to an eye surgeon. Laser surgery that is being done for farsightedness is very new, so I'd be careful and ask to see data. You might look into the corneal ring surgery, too; that shows promise.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27314
Gout is usually successfully controlled by medication. If the medication is not working, then maybe you should cut out all drinking and change your diet, and see if that helps. Carrying extra pounds can aggravate gout, too.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=27313
Our bodies respond to circadian rhythms. Timing medication with his rhythms may prove to be helpful. He should talk to his psychiatrist about this.
http://www.healthcentral.com/drdean/DeanFullTextTopics.cfm?ID=26935
Be careful if you're a dog owner whose pooch loves to chew on pigs ears and other such treats. They could be contaminated with salmonella, which won't hurt your dog, but could make you sick.
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